Railroads could be forced to reroute poisonous substances such as chlorine and anhydrous ammonia as well as certain explosives and radioactive materials, and they could swallow or pass on any extra costs.
There are 27 criteria to measure risks, including track conditions, amount of freight, passenger traffic, trip lengths, population densities and places where people congregate, according to the Federal Railroad Administration.
Officials don't believe railroads will face substantial costs to collect and maintain data on which routes pose the most dangers, and they can't say whether the rule will lead to any rerouting of hazardous loads.
"I don't think anybody has the answer yet," agency Director Joseph Boardman said in a conference call from Pueblo, Colo. "But my expectation is that some routes for hazardous material will be safer than other routes, and when you find those safer routes ... that's where we want you to route the material."
San Antonio leaders locked in a protracted struggle to reroute rail lines around the city welcomed the rule, which comes on the heels of a proposal to force railroads to replace tank cars carrying hazardous materials.
"Another good step in the right direction," Bexar County Judge Nelson Wolff said. "It seems like we've got an agency that woke up."
Local fears and watchdog efforts were ignited by major train wrecks in recent years, including a 2004 accident near Macdona in Southwest Bexar County that punctured a tank car and spewed a chlorine cloud that killed several people.
Union Pacific, the largest carrier in San Antonio, runs about 80 trains a day through here, of which 50 could be rerouted if new tracks and rail yards were built. The federal safest-route rule could help ensure that any alternate tracks get used.
But nobody has stepped up with construction money, which could amount to several billion dollars.
Voters in 2005 approved a statewide rail relocation and improvement fund, but legislators last year failed to fund it. Some leaders say private partnerships and the mammoth Trans-Texas Corridor network of planned tollways and railways will be needed to tackle the job.
The new federal rule starts June 1, and railroads must start gathering shipment and track data by July 1. Risk assessments are due Sept. 1, 2009.
Failure to comply can bring fines of $2,000 to $10,000 a day.
UP officials said the company is studying the new rule but wants the federal government to go further.
"We already strive to use the safest routes but hope that government will look not only at routing but also safer chemicals and reducing the need for transportation of these dangerous chemicals entirely," spokesman James Barnes of Omaha, Neb., said in a statement.
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